A silly idea I came up with the other day on how to use prediction markets to improve healthcare.
When a patient presents with difficult-to-diagnose symptoms, medical professionals, specialists, and anons could participate in a prediction market, placing bets on both potential treatment approaches. Those who correctly identify the ultimate successful treatment would receive financial rewards, incentivizing careful analysis and creating real-time probability distributions of likely cures.
Good thing 1: More eyes
It harnesses collective intelligence. Individual doctors might miss things all the time. But a diverse group of people betting their own money would be motivated to consider all possibilities.
Good thing 2: Roadmap for treatment
The market prices would provide valuable diagnostic and treatment information! If someone heavily bet on particular treatments, that treatment might be a great option to consider. A patient could just go down the list. This could help prioritize both testing and treatment strategies, potentially reducing time to both correct diagnosis and successful treatment.
Good thing 3: Rare Diseases
The market structure creates unique opportunities for rare disease specialists and innovative treatment approaches. With higher potential payouts for correctly identifying uncommon conditions and their successful treatments, the system naturally incentivizes expertise in rare diseases and experimental therapies.
